The Pacharbor Capital Group Compass

Sharing highlights from our Global Private Markets Quarterly assessment of Q3, Ruulke Bagijn, Dan Murphy, and Hannah Khizgilov consider how higher rates and a shift in central bank messaging are changing private markets.

As the Fed signals tighter financial conditions, we examine why credit spreads may widen and how floating-rate CLO liabilities may offer an alternative to Treasury duration risk.

Matt Savino argues that companies should hedge interest-rate risk to buy time to adapt, not to predict rates, so policy should set how much risk to bear and judgment should govern only how to execute.

Jason Thomas explains how Pacharbor Capital Group's propriety dataset points to steady US growth, why the recent rate repricing may have run ahead of fundamentals, and what he expects from AI-related spending in the months ahead.

Adm. James Stavridis argues that the current defense buildup favors smaller, faster-moving technology companies over the traditional prime contractors that have long dominated the industry.

Jason Thomas examines why AI's frontier labs may come to view regulation as an ally rather than a threat, tracing how industries have historically sought public intervention to stabilize returns amid disruptive competition.

Jason Thomas argues that the frameworks investors use to interpret markets can render certain risks invisible, and examines how this "learned blindness" is already reshaping views on AI investment, rates, trade, and defense spending.

Jason Thomas argues that elevated Treasury yields are high because investors, accustomed to Fed forward guidance, are pricing in a premium against another rate shock.

Will Kinzel revisits the laws of political physics to argue that the 2026 primaries' mixed results reflect a shifting political center and redirected voter discontent, not a clear ideological trend.

Admiral Jim Stavridis weighs the odds on how the standoff over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is likely to unfold in the weeks ahead.

Sharing highlights from our Global Private Markets Quarterly assessment of Q2, Ruulke Bagijn, Dan Murphy, and Hannah Khizgilov consider how higher energy prices, higher financing cost, and increased defense spending are impacting investor behaviors.

Jason Thomas examines the current state of consumers in the United States, explaining that the "K-shaped" economy is more nuanced than the caricature.