The laws of political physics

Newton never ran for office. But if he had, he might have recognized something familiar in the political world – not metaphors, but patterns. Politics, like the physical world, operates according to recurring laws. Tendencies so consistent across time and geography that they function almost like gravity.

At our Washington Day event here in DC last week, I had the opportunity to speak with a number of our investors. The conversations were wide-ranging, but a common theme was a sense that political environments everywhere feel less predictable than even a few years ago. I believe there's a reason for this sentiment – one that goes deeper than any individual election or policy cycle.

Having spent years in the political world of Washington, DC, I keep returning to a set of recurring dynamics that I consider the Laws of Political Physics.

This week, I’d like to share two of them, both of which are playing out in real time.

Law One: Power perpetuates itself

Incumbency isn't just an advantage – it's a force. Political systems, coalitions, and institutions bend over time toward whoever holds power. They create dependencies and reshape incentives. They make the default answer to any proposed change "not yet."

This is not intended to be a commentary about legitimacy, but rather an observation about mass. The longer a governing structure is in place, the more gravitational pull it exerts on institutions, on networks, and on the plans of would-be challengers.

Look at Uganda, where Yoweri Museveni has held power for four decades. Protests erupted in January after a disputed election. The opposition leader fled the country. Museveni remains in office. The machinery of the state – the security apparatus, the institutional loyalties, the sheer weight of accumulated control – absorbed the challenge and held. That's not luck. That's the gravitational pull of entrenched power doing exactly what it does.

You see the same logic, in very different form, in Washington. Institutions built over decades through regulatory frameworks, agency cultures, and legal structures have proven more resistant to rapid transformation than reformers typically anticipate. Some changes stick. Others get slowed, reversed, or absorbed. The system has mass. It resists acceleration.

For investors, the implication is practical: don't underestimate how long entrenched structures endure, and don't overestimate how quickly disruption translates into durable policy change. The gap between mandate and implementation is almost always wider and slower than the headlines suggest.

Law Two: Every action generates a reaction

This one is uncomfortable for anyone in power, because it applies universally, regardless of ideology, mandate size, or how right you believe you are.

The clearest example right now is the United Kingdom. Labour won a historic landslide in 2024 with a massive majority, presenting a generational opportunity. And yet within two years, more than 95 Labour MPs had called on Keir Starmer to resign, a cabinet minister had stepped down, and both Reform UK and the Greens made significant gains in local elections as voters registered discontent from multiple directions simultaneously.

This is the reaction law operating in real time. Large mandates don't suspend political physics – they often accelerate the reaction. The bigger the swing, the more exposed the governing coalition becomes. The higher the expectations set, the more visible the inevitable gap between promise and delivery.

The same dynamic is building in the United States ahead of the November midterms. The 2026 elections may significantly alter the balance of power, potentially constraining the administration's ability to pursue major domestic reforms – a pattern that has repeated after nearly every wave election in modern American history.

What political physics means in practice

For those who work at the intersection of business and government, whether as investors, executives, or advisors, these aren't academic observations. They're operational intelligence.

When power concentrates rapidly, ask how the reaction is forming, and where. When a government seems immovable, remember that mass creates inertia in both directions: it's hard to displace, but also hard to redirect. When a mandate looks overwhelming, start watching for the first signs of overextension.

These laws don't tell you outcomes. But they can tell you what questions to ask – and in political risk, that's often the whole game.