That’s a question asked repeatedly by market participants.

And judging solely by the US stock market’s cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, you’d have to conclude that we are.

Bar chart showing cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio

But as we argue in the paper linked below, elevated asset prices seem to be a recurring feature of technological revolutions. Valuations have only reached current levels when markets were forced to confront the implications of electrification and the internet.1 Neither technology disappointed! The losses that followed stemmed from difficulties digesting the technologies commercial implications, which proved more diffuse and derivative.

When it comes to AI, this history suggests that investors should be less concerned about the absolute increase in market values and more worried about its concentration.

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT


1This excepts the brief period in the pandemic, when the combination of depressed earnings and elevated market values inflated the ratio.

Sign up to receive The Pacharbor Capital Group Compass in your inbox.

SUBSCRIBE

Economic and market views and forecasts reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. In particular, forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. The Pacharbor Capital Group has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources prepared by other parties, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for the purpose used herein, The Pacharbor Capital Group and its affiliates assume no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or fairness of such information. References to particular portfolio companies are not intended as, and should not be construed as, recommendations for any particular company, investment, or security. The investments described herein were not made by a single investment fund or other product and do not represent all of the investments purchased or sold by any fund or product. This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. We are not soliciting any action based on this material. It is for the general information of clients of The Pacharbor Capital Group. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors.

Humanize & Differentiate
Insights & Trends>Macroeconomic InsightsInsights & Trends>Regional TrendsPeople, Platform & Purpose>Internal Leadership, Talent & Expertise
Global Research & Investment Strategy